[承伤减半概率的专业测试]---申请加精华

憧憬碧水蓝天 · 发表于 2010-4-20 15:11:37

本帖最后由憧憬碧水蓝天于 2010-10-1 16:04 编辑

结论:

一. 承伤概率不是简单地叠加的.
   在一件装备条件下, 发生几率比实际的值小(见1件装备测试部分)
   在两件装备条件下, 几率最接近简单相加值(见2件装备测试部分)
   在三件装备条件下, 发生几率比简单相加的值小(见3件装备测试部分)
   可以认为验证伤减是这样计算的(以本人数据为例)：
   一件是12%，
   二件是[1-（1-0.12）＊（1-0.13）]=23.44%，
   三件是[1-(1-0.12)*(1-0.13)*(1-0.10)]=31.096%

二. 承伤效果不叠加. 在穿2件装备和穿3件装备的700次中, 从没出现减半再减半的情况.

本次测试,  采样率为1050次.
完全满足可靠性测试中关于概率发生所需的最小采样数100次.
所以很负责任地说, 测试数据可信度>98%.

测试目的:

一. 验证承伤概率是否会简单的叠加, 即是否15%+15%+15%=45%;
二. 验证承伤效果是否会叠加再叠加, 即是否会发生减半后再减半的可能性;

测试步骤:

一. 用2个角色切磋, 记录即时产生的伤害值. 为方便观察, 攻击方采用琴的月食曲, 因其固定伤害值为800;
二. 每次测试分别用25波琴曲共350次攻击作为采样值;
三. 被攻击方分别穿1件/2件/3件有承伤几率的装备来承受攻击, 记录分别产生的伤害值及计算承伤激活概率;

测试角色:

主攻击方: 琴, 93级; 角色固定伤害值为800点
被攻击方: 邪, 95级; (以下会分别把角色穿1件/2件/3件装备的防御值贴出来)

1件装备

那么在承伤概率不激活的情况下, 受到的伤害为 : 800 x (1-24%)-11=597;
如果承伤概率激活的话, 受到的伤害应该为 : 597/2=298.5, 系统取整为298.

实际上, 伤害值一直在597,298 两个值中交替出现.

T01={298,597,298,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597}
T02={597,298,298,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597}
T03={597,597,298,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597}
T04={597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,298}
T05={597,597,597,597,597,298,597,597,298,597,597,597,597,597}
T06={597,597,597,597,298,597,597,597,298,597,597,597,597,597}
T07={597,597,298,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597}
T08={298,597,597,597,298,597,298,597,597,597,597,597,597,597}
T09={597,597,597,597,298,298,597,597,597,597,298,597,597,597}
T10={597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,298,597,597,597,597,597}
T11={597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597}
T12={597,298,298,597,597,597,298,597,597,597,597,298,597,597}
T13={597,597,298,597,597,597,298,597,597,597,597,597,597,597}
T14={597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597}
T15={597,298,597,597,298,597,597,298,298,597,597,597,597,597}
T16={597,597,597,597,597,298,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597}
T17={597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597}
T18={597,597,597,597,597,597,597,298,597,597,298,597,597,298}
T19={597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,298,597}
T20={597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,298,597,597,597,597,597}
T21={597,597,597,298,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597}
T22={597,597,597,597,597,298,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597}
T23={597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597}
T24={597,597,298,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597,597}
T25={597,597,597,597,597,597,597,298,597,597,597,597,597,597}

在以上25波350次伤害中, 承伤激活次数为38次, 承伤概率为 38/350*100%=10.86%
裤子的承伤几率为: 12%

2件装备

那么在承伤概率不激活的情况下, 受到的伤害为 : 800 x (1-38%)-11=485;
如果承伤概率激活的话, 受到的伤害应该为 : 485/2=242.5, 系统取整为242.

实际上, 伤害值一直在485,242 两个值中交替出现.

T01={485,485,485,242,485,485,485,485,485,242,485,485,485,242}
T02={485,242,485,242,242,485,485,485,485,242,485,485,485,485}
T03={485,485,485,485,485,485,485,485,242,242,485,485,485,242}
T04={485,485,242,242,242,242,242,242,485,485,242,242,485,242}
T05={485,242,485,485,485,485,485,485,242,485,485,485,242,485}
T06={485,242,485,485,485,485,485,242,485,485,485,485,485,485}
T07={485,485,485,485,485,242,485,242,485,485,485,485,485,485}
T08={485,485,242,485,485,485,485,485,485,242,242,485,485,485}
T09={485,485,485,485,242,485,485,485,485,485,242,485,485,485}
T10={485,242,485,485,485,485,485,485,485,242,485,485,485,485}
T11={242,485,242,485,485,242,485,485,242,485,485,242,242,485}
T12={485,485,242,485,485,242,485,485,485,242,485,485,485,485}
T13={485,485,485,485,485,485,485,242,485,242,485,485,485,485}
T14={485,485,242,242,485,485,242,485,242,485,485,485,485,485}
T15={485,485,485,485,485,485,242,485,485,242,485,485,485,485}
T16={242,485,485,242,242,485,242,485,485,485,485,485,485,485}
T17={485,242,485,242,242,485,242,485,485,485,485,485,485,485}
T18={485,485,242,242,485,485,485,485,485,485,485,242,485,242}
T19={485,242,242,485,485,242,485,485,242,485,485,485,485,485}
T20={485,485,485,485,485,242,242,485,485,485,485,242,485,485}
T21={485,242,485,242,485,242,485,485,485,485,485,485,485,485}
T22={485,242,242,485,485,485,485,242,485,242,485,485,485,485}
T23={242,242,485,485,485,485,242,485,242,485,485,485,485,485}
T24={485,485,242,485,242,485,242,485,485,485,485,485,485,485}
T25={485,485,485,485,485,485,242,485,485,485,485,485,485,242}

在以上25波350次伤害中, 承伤激活次数为85次, 承伤概率为 85/350*100%=24.29%
把2件装备上(头/裤)的几率相加: 13%+12%=25%

3件装备

那么在承伤概率不激活的情况下, 受到的伤害为 : 800 x (1-46%)-11=421;
如果承伤概率激活的话, 受到的伤害应该为 : 421/2=210.5, 系统取整为210.

实际上, 伤害值一直在421,210 两个值中交替出现.

T01={421,210,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,210,421,210,421}
T02={421,421,421,210,421,421,421,210,421,421,421,210,421,210}
T03={210,210,421,421,210,421,210,421,210,421,421,210,421,421}
T04={421,210,421,210,210,421,421,210,210,421,421,421,421,421}
T05={210,210,210,421,210,210,421,421,421,210,210,421,421,421}
T06={421,421,421,210,421,210,210,421,421,421,210,421,421,421}
T07={421,421,421,210,210,421,210,421,210,421,210,210,421,210}
T08={421,421,421,210,421,210,210,421,421,210,421,421,421,421}
T09={421,210,210,421,210,210,421,421,210,421,210,421,421,421}
T10={210,210,210,210,210,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,421}
T11={421,421,421,421,421,210,421,210,210,421,210,421,421,421}
T12={210,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,210,210,421,210,421}
T13={421,421,421,210,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,421}
T14={421,421,210,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,210,421}
T15={421,210,210,421,210,210,421,421,210,421,421,421,210,421}
T16={421,421,421,421,210,210,421,421,210,421,210,210,421,421}
T17={210,210,421,421,421,421,210,421,421,210,421,421,421,210}
T18={421,421,421,421,421,421,210,210,421,421,421,421,421,421}
T19={210,210,210,421,421,421,421,210,421,421,421,421,421,210}
T20={210,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,210,421,421,421,210}
T21={210,421,421,210,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,421,210}
T22={421,421,421,421,210,210,421,421,421,210,210,421,421,421}
T23={210,421,210,421,421,210,421,421,210,421,421,421,421,421}
T24={210,421,421,421,421,421,421,210,421,421,421,210,421,421}
T25={210,210,421,421,421,210,210,421,421,210,421,210,421,210}

在以上25波350次伤害中, 承伤激活次数为108次, 承伤概率为 108/350*100%=30.86%
把3件装备(头/衣/裤)上的几率相加: 13%+10%+12%=35%

论坛萌新1536500 · 发表于 2010-4-20 15:24:46

LZ有心了 ……

论坛萌新2861218 · 发表于 2010-4-20 15:22:36

......看看都累的慌，

论坛萌新787455 · 发表于 2010-4-20 15:19:24

广告待猪

论坛萌新4256407 · 发表于 2014-7-21 15:55:57

金山的数据都是瞎搞的，楼主还当回事，去计算，抽风闲的蛋疼吧

论坛萌新4594019 · 发表于 2014-7-21 13:39:20

幸苦幸苦

论坛萌新3235363 · 发表于 2014-7-21 00:01:49

现在最大的问题时，游戏里的减半装备或石头被炒得虚高，实际并不值那个价值。

论坛萌新3235363 · 发表于 2014-7-21 00:00:36

不用测试都应该会算实际减半
不管你有多少件减半，每件装备的减半都是独立事件，
根据概率学就可以计算了，只要其中一件装备发挥了减半效果，就可以实现减半

只要算出N件装备都同时不发生减半效果就行了：

实际减半概率：1-（1-a）*（1-b）*（1-c）*（1-d）...*（1-N）（a，到N为各装备的名义减半概率）

减半再减半是不可能发生的，因为各装备的减半是没有先后关系的。